ASPEN REAL ESTATE

2024 YEAR END REPORT

What happened with Aspen Real Estate in 2024

With the uncertainty of the election behind us and Goldman Sachs forecasting rate cuts in the first half of 2025, reaching a terminal rate of 3.25% to 3.5%, we are optimistic that the Aspen real estate market will see a rebound just like it did after the election in 2016.

Aspen continues to solidify its position as a premier destination for the ultra-wealthy.

Driven by a combination of natural beauty, exclusive amenities and a growing demand for high-end properties, the town’s luxury real estate market remains exceptionally strong.

Of the 10 most expensive homes sold in Colorado this year, six were in Aspen and two more were in communities just outside the famed mountain town.

As of December 17, 2024 the amount sales YTD is $1.8B, compared to $1.7B in 2023.

The average sold price single family home is $20M, an 25% increase from $16M in 2023. The average sold price per square foot is at $3600, compared to $3100/sq ft in 2023.

The average sold price of a condo is $3.3M ($3300/sq ft) compared to $4M ($2800/sq ft) in  2023. These stats are skewed by two large penthouse sales, which are listed as condos, and were sold for $48M for the Mother Lode property and $25M for Monarch on the Park condo.

The maximum size allowed for a newly built home dropped from 15,000 square feet to 9,250 square feet, making larger homes hitting the market virtually irreplaceable. New energy code restrictions also make it hard to add a pool, hot tub or snowmelt to homes.

Demand keeps being driven by billionaires, which trickles down to the rest of the market. Demand still outstrips supply.  Although inventory has been slowly rising, it is still near the 20 year low, as can be seen from the graph below.

Below are the stats from the Aspen market in November and year to date. Compared to last year, inventory decreased by 15%. For condos, inventory increased by 5.8%.

Days on the Market for Homes increased from 163 to 223 (this is largely driven by high interest rate and the election year) and from 138 to 147 for condos. Months supply of Inventory (how many months it takes to sell) decreased from 13 to 12 months for homes and 7 to 6 months for condos. The List/Sold ratio stayed relatively the same at 92% for homes and 94% for condos.

The market remains strong as most sellers are reluctant to sell (with few newer options to move to, high prices,  higher interest rates and about four years of permits and construction to build a new home).

The median price of a home increased from ~$5M in 2019 to $12.5M in 2024, that’s a 150% total return in six years; and from ~$1.8M in 2019 to $3.25M in 2024, an 80% total return.

Hot Off the Press

According to the article in WSJ from December 11, 2024:

“In the inventory-starved real-estate market of Aspen, Colo., a pair of spec mansions is coming on the market—one for $45 million and another for $36.5 million—in an unusual double offering for the affluent ski area.

On Aspen’s Red Mountain, the $45 million home is roughly 7,200 square feet with six bedrooms (bought for $8.4M in 2017), while the $36.5 million home spans about 5,600 square feet with five bedrooms in Aspen’s West End (bought for $4.2M in 2020).

Scannell and Cooke’s (developers) foray into luxury real-estate development comes at a time when Aspen is facing a distinct lack of new-construction homes. Many other Aspen developers are pulling back, thanks to the high cost of land and labor, a shortage of development opportunities and increased building regulations in Aspen and Pitkin County.”

Earlier this month, Patrick Dovigi, a former hockey player, entrepreneur and real-estate investor, sold a mansion in downtown Aspen for $55 million, $6.25 million more than he paid for it in April. This spring, he sold a mansion overlooking downtown for $108 million after buying it for $72.5 million in 2021.”

For more info on the $45M and $36.5M homes, before they hit the market, drop an email to [email protected].

Newer homes present a safe haven investment with great upside appreciation, as there is a shortage of new homes and the cap on new construction is at 9250 sq ft.

The cost to build is now at $2000 to $3500/sq ft (it used to be $500/sq ft 15 years ago). See my Developer’s Guide below for more info.

Building a high end home in a premier location or buying a newer one provides a premium return. Reach out to see how much your home has appreciated in light of these changes.

Record Breaking Sales

• 419 Willoughby Way (click on the addresses for links) The top of the list goes to the largest sale in the history of Colorado at $108M for a rare 22,000 sq ft home on a large 4.5 acre lot on “Billionaire’s Row” on Red Mountain at $4800/sq ft. Previously sold for $43M in 2009. OFF MARKET

• 112 W Hopkins Ave One buyer bought two 6000 sq ft new construction homes on a 9000 sq ft lot for $66.5M OFF MARKET

• 600 Owl Creek Ranch Rd A 60 acre ranch in Buttermilk with a 12,000 sq ft home sold for $77M. Previously sold for $40M in 2021

• 720 Willoughby Way A 9000 sq ft home on an acre lot on “Billionaire’s Row” sold for $60M. Previously sold for $27M in 2020. OFF MARKET

• 1525 Star Mesa Drive A 36 acre compound with ponds, meadows and private trails, and a 15,000 sq ft home sold for $59.5M.

• The Newberry home Jack Nicholson’s former 8000 sq ft home on a 11,000 sq ft lot overlooking the Hallam Lake in the prestigious West End with walkable streets, lined with Victorian homes sold for $59.75M. Previously Sold for $11M in 2013. OFF MARKET.

• 210 S West End St A 8000 sq ft home on a 9000 sq ft rare downtown corner lot sold for $55M. Previously sold for $48M in April. OFF MARKET

• 501 W Hopkins Ave A 7,000 sq ft with significant acreage going up Ajax sold at $7000/sq ft for $37M. Previously the lot sold for $4.5M in 2015.

As you can see, five out of the top eight sales happened off market. If you are looking for a unique property, reach out to get a list of 69 Off Market Aspen homes over $10M.

If you have a large newer home, now may be beneficial time to see how much appreciation you can get out of your home.

Reach out for 69 Off Market homes or to find out the value of your home.